AGP Executive Report

Tigray–Federal Tensions: Ethiopia says hardline Tigrayan forces linked to the TPLF are preparing an offensive against the federal government in the coming days, warning of a relapse into war after clashes resumed in late 2025. Budget & Reform Push: Finance Minister Ahmed Shide told parliament Ethiopia’s 2026/27 draft federal budget tops 2.33 trillion birr and projects 10.1% growth, citing exports, FDI and improved agriculture, alongside claims that coordinated monetary-fiscal reforms are cutting inflation. Ethiopia–Nigeria Justice Ties: Ethiopia and Nigeria signed a prisoner transfer pact to let convicted nationals serve remaining sentences at home, with officials noting deaths during negotiations and framing it as a humanitarian step. Ethiopia–China Education Link: Addis Ababa and Beijing agreed to expand Chinese language education across Ethiopia’s schools, positioning it as deeper people-to-people cooperation. Regional Security Monitoring: ECOWAS and the AU began talks in Abuja to strengthen early warning cooperation between CEWS and ECOWARN, aiming to improve conflict prevention and information sharing. Digital Finance Spotlight (Addis): A connected banking summit is set for Addis Ababa on Aug. 12, 2026, as Ethiopia accelerates digital banking modernization. Migration & Displacement: UN-linked reporting highlights displacement near record highs, with 117.8 million forcibly displaced in 2025, while returns are described as fragile rather than a sign crises are over.

Ethiopia’s Budget Push: Finance Minister Ahmed Shide told lawmakers that coordinated monetary and fiscal reforms under the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda are driving strong growth and sharply lower inflation, while warning that next year’s spending will climb to about 2.34 trillion birr as Iran-war related costs weigh on the budget. Digital Skills Drive: PM Abiy Ahmed hailed Ethiopia’s 5 million Ethiopian Coders milestone, urging more youth to register for free training and target 7 million enrollments by August. Regional Justice Deal: Ethiopia and Nigeria signed a Transfer of Sentenced Persons Agreement in Addis Ababa to let over 100 prisoners serve remaining terms at home, with officials citing humanity and reintegration. Prisoner Swap Follow-Through: Nigeria also moved to evacuate 262 citizens from South Africa amid xenophobic attacks, with more batches expected. Ethiopia–Nigeria Diplomacy: High-level talks between Ethiopia’s FM Gedion Timothewos and Nigeria’s FM Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu produced the legal cooperation framework and broader partnership agenda. Banking Modernisation Spotlight: A major summit is set for 12 August in Addis Ababa on connected banking and digital finance modernization.

Ethiopia–Nigeria Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Nigeria held high-level foreign ministry talks in Addis Ababa, ending with a landmark Agreement on the Exchange or Transfer of Sentenced Persons signed by Ethiopia’s Justice Minister and Nigeria’s Attorney General, signaling deeper legal cooperation. COP32 Prep Briefing: Ethiopia’s COP32 President-Designate Gedion Timothewos briefed African ambassadors on Addis Ababa’s COP32 preparations at UNECA, with ambassadors pledging support. Ebola Border Measures: Health authorities in Trinidad and Tobago announced stricter Ebola screening and travel advisories tied to the DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan, with enhanced monitoring for arrivals who transited through affected areas—an indirect reminder of how quickly regional outbreaks can shape border policy. Ethiopia’s Sea Access Push: A senior Ethiopian parliamentarian said renewed debate on Ethiopia’s sea access is tied to regional security and economic cooperation, framing it as a long-standing legal and equity issue. Green Growth & Hotels: IFC and MIDROC Ethiopia confirmed an $80m Sheraton Addis expansion and refurbishment, including Ethiopia’s first green-certified hotels, aimed at boosting tourism and COP32 readiness. Ethiopia Protected Areas Study: A Nature study reports Ethiopia’s protected areas slowed deforestation and farming expansion, but also found trade-offs for nearby communities’ food security and wellbeing.

COP32 Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister and COP32 President-designate Gedion Timothewos briefed African ambassadors at UNECA on Addis Ababa’s COP32 preparations, securing renewed regional support and closer coordination. AI Governance Debate: A new analysis argues that copying Europe’s AI regulation model won’t fit Africa’s realities, even as Kenya and Ethiopia move toward AI laws. Agriculture & Jobs: Ethiopia says agricultural investment is expanding fast—2.3 million hectares under investment managed by thousands of investors—aiming to boost exports, import substitution, and rural transformation. IFC Financing for Tourism: The IFC plans an $80m loan to MIDROC Ethiopia’s Sheraton refurbishment and new hotel development, targeting thousands of jobs and stronger tourism capacity. Refugee Entrepreneurship Results: Evidence from DREAMS trials reports higher incomes, savings, and resilience for refugees and host communities in Ethiopia and Uganda, backed by major foundation funding. Nigerian Prisoners in Ethiopia: Nigeria’s President Tinubu orders urgent steps to repatriate nearly 300 Nigerians from Ethiopian prisons, with a delegation tasked to sign an MOU for transfers. Regional Security Watch: An AP report says a suspected Israeli spy’s mysterious disappearance from Hezbollah custody in Lebanon is raising political and intelligence tensions. Energy Transition Context: A report highlights Africa’s shift toward solar, wind, and storage as faster, cheaper power options compared with long-build coal and large dams.

Ethiopia’s Election Watch: NEBE released preliminary results from 24 constituencies, with the Prosperity Party winning all but one seat so far—NaMA’s Tahir Mohammed Tahir took Gondar Zuria Constituency No. 4—while verification and tabulation continue and some constituencies’ results are still missing. Tigray Power Tension: TPLF announced it is taking back control of the regional government in northern Ethiopia, raising fears of a return to war as both sides trade accusations ahead of the national vote. Cybersecurity & Trade Rules: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives approved draft proclamations on cybersecurity for key infrastructures and a revised customs proclamation aimed at preventing cyberattacks and contraband while aligning customs with international commitments. Budget & Governance: The Council of Ministers forwarded a record 2.34 trillion birr federal budget proposal to Parliament for the upcoming EFY period. Ebola Response Link: The EU Commission announced €16.5 million in new support for Ebola containment, including work with Africa CDC in Addis Ababa to strengthen surveillance and diagnostics. Foreign Investment Banking: United Capital says it has obtained investment banking licences in Ethiopia and Rwanda, positioning itself as the first foreign institution licensed for investment banking services in Ethiopia.

Statistics & Governance: Ethiopia’s long-delayed population and housing census is back in Parliament as a new statistics bill would dissolve the multi-regional Council and replace it with a nine-member technical board reporting to the Prime Minister—sparking fresh disputes over neutrality and who controls the country’s core demographic data. Federal Budget: The Council of Ministers approved a 2.34 trillion Birr draft federal budget for EFY 2019, forwarding it to the House of People’s Representatives and tying spending to the 2019–2021 E.C Development and Investment Plan plus a new medium-term macro-fiscal framework. Housing Delivery Push: Prime Minister Abiy visited a housing demonstration site showcasing rapid-build methods—3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing—arguing the technologies can speed up Ethiopia’s national housing program nationwide. Capital Market Openness: Ethiopia moved to deepen its capital market as United Capital received a licence to operate as a foreign investment bank in Addis Ababa, marking a first for foreign investment banking locally. Elections & Security Context: Election reporting highlights ongoing delays in results transmission and continued claims of disruption by armed groups, with hundreds of constituencies still pending as voters head into a tense political moment. Public Health Preparedness: Africa CDC and WHO launched a unified Ebola preparedness and six-month response plan in Addis Ababa, targeting $518 million for outbreak control and cross-border coordination.

Ethiopia Election Aftermath: The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) says IDPs and Ethiopian defense forces will vote on Tuesday in special polling stations at IDP and military camps, as the board verifies, audits, enters results into its database, and handles complaints before publishing final outcomes. Diplomacy & Regional Capacity: Ethiopia concluded a five-day diplomatic training program for South Sudanese diplomats in Addis Ababa, covering pan-Africanism, negotiation, hydro-politics, peacekeeping, and conflict resolution to deepen bilateral cooperation. EU Engagement on Security and Health: Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos met EU Commissioner Hadja Lahbib on EU support for equality, preparedness, and crisis management, including cooperation on Ebola and Horn of Africa peace and security. Food Safety Push: The Ethiopian Food and Drug Authority (EFDA) warned unsafe food remains a major illness driver and urged stronger cross-sector collaboration, lab capacity, and evidence-based regulation to improve food safety nationwide. Finance & Market Access: United Capital says it has secured investment banking licences in Ethiopia and Rwanda, positioning it as the first foreign institution licensed to provide investment banking services in Ethiopia. Humanitarian Funding: The U.S. State Department announced a $240 million grant to Catholic Relief Services for rapid disaster and humanitarian response, naming Ethiopia among priority countries. Labor Policy (Regional Watch): Kuwait updated domestic worker recruitment rules, listing Ethiopia among approved source countries and restricting recruitment from others.

Judiciary Independence Under Fire (Zimbabwe): Lawyers in Zimbabwe criticized President Emmerson Mnangagwa after he presented retired Chief Justice Luke Malaba with an agricultural mechanisation package, arguing the gift could undermine confidence in judicial independence. Ebola Response (DRC/Region): UNICEF said it is rapidly scaling up Ebola support in the DRC and neighboring countries, dispatching over 100 metric tons of emergency supplies including PPE, medicines, and WASH materials, while warning donors must urgently fill funding gaps. Ethiopia’s Capital Market (Addis Ababa): Nigeria’s United Capital won ECMA approval to operate investment banking in Ethiopia via a wholly owned local subsidiary, positioning it as the first foreign investment bank in Addis Ababa and a test of Ethiopia’s financial reforms. Ethiopia’s Red Sea Push (Horn of Africa): A new report says Ethiopia’s election-era campaign for Red Sea access relies on repeated messaging and pressure on neighboring states, despite the legal complexities of access by consent. Election and Governance (Ethiopia): Coverage highlights Ethiopia’s 7th general election as peaceful and well-administered, with observers and partners pointing to institutional and electoral progress. Migration Politics (South Africa): South Africa’s Ramaphosa promised action on illegal migration amid xenophobic tensions, stressing only authorized state officials can enforce immigration laws. Global Aid Pressure: A development-focused report warns official aid fell sharply in 2025, hitting least developed and sub-Saharan countries hardest as humanitarian needs rise.

Ethiopia Election Watch: As Ethiopia’s June 1 vote moves from polling to counting and verification, the National Election Board dismissed two staffers over procedural violations while results are still being tallied across several regions including Addis Ababa, amid delays and a surge of disputed digital material. Regional Diplomacy: Ethiopia also joined the 11th BRICS Foreign Policy Dialogue in New Delhi, highlighting the Green Legacy Initiative and its digital and economic transformation plans. Aviation & Business: Ethiopian Airlines’ CEO said a decision on a regional jet order is expected within three months, as the airline grapples with higher fuel costs linked to the Iran war. Security & Governance in the Horn: Observers and officials continue to debate the election’s credibility, with voting suspended in parts of Amhara, Oromia and Tigray citing insecurity. Cross-Regional Migration Tensions: South Africa’s Ramaphosa promised state action on illegal migration while rejecting vigilante enforcement, as xenophobia fears drive regional concern.

Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry says it joined the 11th BRICS Foreign Policy Dialogue in New Delhi, highlighting climate action, digital and economic transformation, and South-South cooperation. Elections & governance: NEBE chair Melatwork Hailu reports vote counting continues across hundreds of constituencies, with delays blamed on distance, heavy candidate lists, and polling logistics, while the board dismisses two staffers over procedural breaches amid disputed online videos. Security & conflict: AFP reports insurgent attacks in Oromia’s Arsi zone around the June 1 election, with witnesses alleging dozens killed and hundreds fleeing; separately, dissident authorities in Tigray accuse a drone strike near Shiraro of hitting Tigray forces. Regional diplomacy: Somalia’s ambassador to Ethiopia says Mogadishu will extend federal authority to northern regions, including Hargeisa and Berbera, amid renewed Somaliland tensions. Economy & policy: Ethiopia’s IMF support is set to accelerate, with the Fund stepping up access for several African states affected by the Iran-linked shock to energy and fertilizer supply chains. Transport & industry: Ethiopian Airlines’ CEO says a decision on a regional jet order is expected within three months as fuel costs remain a pressure point.

Ethiopia Election Count Under Strain: NEBE says vote counting is continuing and results are being transferred, with about 825 of 1,138 constituencies already declaring outcomes, while the board dismisses two employees over procedural violations and faces delays tied to distance, heavy candidate lists, and security interruptions. Disputed Poll Materials: NEBE is now in damage-control mode, defending the credibility of the count amid contested digital videos circulating online and urging parties to consolidate grievances by June 6. IDP and Military Voting Set: NEBE designates June 9 for specially registered IDPs and military personnel, with observers expecting results announcements later in the month. Arsi Zone Violence: Prime Minister Abiy extends condolences over attacks in Oromia’s Arsi Zone, blaming OLA-Shene and warning of efforts to inflame ethnic and religious tensions. Security Fallout in Ethiopia: AFP reports OLA-linked attacks in Arsi zone killed dozens, with figures disputed due to access limits. IMF Support for Ethiopia and Others: The IMF steps up financing for Ethiopia and other African states amid wider regional shocks, including a proposed accelerated tranche tied to an existing program. AU Budget Pressure: The AU Commission warns it is operating with only 30% of needed staffing and calls for higher member contributions, with 2027 framed as an austerity budget.

Humanitarian Funding: The U.S. approved $240m for Catholic Relief Services (CRS), with Ethiopia among the beneficiaries for food, health, water, shelter and other multi-sector aid, announced in Rome as part of a push to speed emergency delivery through vetted partners. Security & Elections: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed extended condolences over Arsi Zone attacks in Oromia, blaming OLA-Shene and saying security operations are underway, while NEBE set June 9 for special voting by IDPs and military. Local Governance & Rights: EZEMA accused NEBE and opposition rivals of undermining election oversight, pointing to weak observer presence in places like Arba Minch. Environment & Urban Renewal: EEPA marked World Environment Day with Abiy’s Riverside and Corridor projects, citing the Green Legacy’s massive afforestation push. Green Economy Policy: Ethiopia is drafting a more centralized carbon rights framework, moving federal control over carbon ownership and credits while reshaping how communities and developers operate. International Cooperation: Nordic partners pledged support for Ethiopia’s EV ambitions ahead of COP32, and Ethiopia’s ties with Canada gained a new Ethiopian-Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Regional Spotlight: BRICS disaster-risk meetings in Odisha highlighted Ethiopia’s participation and disaster resilience cooperation.

Ethiopia’s 7th General Election: Observers say the June 1 vote was “generally peaceful,” even as insecurity forced suspensions in parts of Amhara, Oromia and Tigray, with NEBE reporting polling stations opened and voters processed across most areas. Diplomacy & Capacity Building: Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry wrapped a four-day HR reform training for over 60 diplomats on situational analysis, trend analysis and crisis diplomacy, with more staff training planned. Regional Integration via GERD: At Assosa University, officials and scholars framed the GERD as more than power—arguing it can deepen Horn of Africa cooperation and call for rigorous research to counter misinformation. Ebola Preparedness: Ethiopia-linked travel screening remains in focus after a Sudanese traveler arriving in Hyderabad from Ethiopia tested negative for Ebola, while St. Vincent and the Grenadines issued a travel advisory listing Ethiopia among higher-risk countries. Tech & Partnerships: Afretec added Addis Ababa Science and Technology University as its 10th partner, and Smart Hands Africa expanded its Supermicro services footprint across multiple African markets including Ethiopia. Trade Links: Canada launched a Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Ethiopia to boost business ties, while Indonesia pushed deeper trade and investment cooperation with sub-Saharan Africa, citing Ethiopia among participating diplomats.

Ethiopia’s e-mobility push: UNECA’s Robert Lisinge says Ethiopia’s electric mobility strategy is key to cutting emissions, reducing fossil-fuel import dependence, and strengthening climate resilience. Nasir trial: Mam Pal Dhuor, second accused in the Nasir incident case, denied financing armed youth and rejected all charges, including claims of sending funds linked to the violence. Religious violence in Ethiopia: Militants killed at least 37 Orthodox Christians in Arsi zone, burned the century-old Church of Archangel Gabriel, and displaced hundreds, with missing residents feared. Diplomacy training: Ethiopia launched a four-day diplomatic training program for South Sudanese diplomats in Addis Ababa, focused on negotiation, Pan-Africanism, and regional cooperation. Election legitimacy debate: Commentators warn Ethiopia’s June 1 election may preserve formal electoral structures while insecurity and shrinking civic space weaken democratic meaning. AfCFTA implementation review: Ethiopia and Togo are assessing AfCFTA progress under AFIRM, aiming to turn identified legal and operational gaps into reforms. Digital finance milestone: EthSwitch reports over 1 million EthioPay-IPS transactions in a day, worth more than 5 billion birr, alongside a financial inclusion award. Climate talks access: Visa barriers are reportedly keeping some of the world’s poorest countries out of the Bonn climate conference. UN/IMF finance link: IMF selected Alvaro Piris Chavarri as Venezuela mission chief; he is also listed as Ethiopia mission chief.

IMF & Ethiopia’s Economy: The IMF says it has reached a staff-level deal for Ethiopia’s fifth review under its $3.4bn ECF, paving the way for a $468m disbursement, while also stepping up support for other African states hit by the war-driven fertilizer and energy shock. Ethiopia’s Digital Payments: EthSwitch reports EthioPay-IPS hit 1 million transactions in a day worth over ETB 5bn, alongside an “African financial inclusion” award for the interoperable instant payments push. Ethiopia’s Election Aftermath: Japan has publicly praised Ethiopia’s 7th general election as successfully administered, with NEBE and voters credited for participation and democratic progress. BRICS Culture Track: BRICS culture ministers and delegates met in Varanasi, with Ethiopia joining online, focusing on creative economy priorities, copyright, and ethical AI. US Visa Processing Shift: A US memo says visa services in Africa will be cut from nearly 50 to 20 hubs, with Addis Ababa among the remaining sites. Humanitarian & Rights in Focus: Lesotho urged stronger African participation in cyber-security and international humanitarian law discussions in Addis Ababa, as concerns grow over civilian harm from cyber operations.

IMF Deal for Ethiopia: Ethiopia has reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the fifth review of its reform program, paving the way for about USD 468 million in additional disbursement, with the Fund citing progress on inflation and reserves despite external shocks from the Middle East war. Election Diplomacy: Japan has praised Ethiopia’s 7th General Election as successful, highlighting NEBE’s administration and high citizen participation, while AU and IGAD observers earlier described voting as broadly peaceful but flagged operational and crowding problems. Polling Logistics: IGAD’s preliminary findings urged NEBE to standardize voter ID procedures and reduce voter capacity per polling station, after long queues and an emergency extension in parts of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. Local Capacity Push: Ethiopia unveiled an 80% local participation plan to cut reliance on foreign contractors in infrastructure and housing projects, aiming to grow domestic firms’ ability to bid internationally. Public Health Alert: A suspected Ebola-related case triggered screening and isolation at Hyderabad airport after a traveler arrived from Ethiopia with fever and recent travel history; authorities said testing is underway. AU Governance Meeting: The AU opened its PRC session in Addis Ababa, with leaders warning of funding gaps and urging unity to advance Agenda 2063, amid conflicts and health emergencies. Cultural Ties: Pakistan’s heritage minister met Ethiopia’s ambassador in Islamabad, pledging to strengthen culture and tourism links through exchanges and joint festivals.